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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:27 pm 
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claiming responsibility of a kill which people are attributing to mafia is stupid as mafia or SK because it attracts a bunch of negative attention to you and probably kills you, and you gain nothing from it (except town cred in the event that you anticipate people thinking you'll be town because it would be stupid if mafia did it but ime WIFOM of that nature rarely works out and i doubt NEO is the kind of player to try that gambit.)

the only faction which has anything to gain from claiming that they were responsible for the kill is town, because it stops misinformation from spreading which can be dangerous to the town. Jester benefits too i guess, but thats proibably not worth considering.

I unfortunately have a strong town read on neo.

Tevish usually strikes me as a pretty logical player but they've made what seems like two bad cases to me now, which makes me a little sus of them.

We should probably be operating on the assumption that amber was the mafia kill and figuring out why the mafia would want to kill amber

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:32 pm 
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Would you be willing to operate leashed? That is, now that your ability is in the open so to say, have the town vote publicly on a desired target to (essentially) gain a second lynch.


Yes - I'm 100% fine with using my ability in a vote-type way, as a chance to have a second lynch, if desired.

I've love to get a list of people of their top two targets, and then we can maybe use that for some future bread-crumbing.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:41 am 
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I feel like I haven't posted in here in forever, and only Rag has added a post. Disheartening to say the least, though that's an understatement when it comes to actually playing and solving the game.

So we're missing CL, Fred, and Rubik from this conversation.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:29 pm 
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@Neo: Awesome.

@KoD: Yeah, this game is slow as all getout.

I'd thought about pedantically reconstructing the case on Rag, like go through all of his posts and all the posts that mention him and analyze each relevant one to track his behavior, but... yeah, I just get the feeling this game wouldn't really read it, so here's the TLDR

~The Case to Lynch Rag~
1) Rag has claimed a spreading miller role. It is typically policy to lynch claimed millers as otherwise it's a role scum can 'coast' in as it denies counterclaim, and to do so before LyLo so that we can have some knowledge of the game setup when everything is on the line (cops that claim and live, similarly, typically get lynched if it's possible to do so pre-lylo, in order to confirm their claimed results)
2) Rag came to the defense of QSJ. QSJ is known to be scum. Zinger (now known to be town) posited, at the end of day 1, that QSJ and Rag were probably scum buddies and CL (who the lynch would have pushed on if the wagon on QSJ evaporated, ignoring The One) town. So far, two out of the data points for this theory have been proved by flip. The third data point would be Rag=Scum. Rag is probably more likely to be scum than other players and should be lynched
3) Zinger, a major accuser of Rag, was killed in the night. Silenced to protect Rag? We now know this kill was performed by Neo, who is probably a town vigilante based on the logical outcomes of his claim (when I'm not derping the endgame on my analysis). This point is now irrelevant.
4) Rag's defense of himself relies heavily on the problematic end of WIFOM logic -- that is, presenting possible resolutions as equally likely rather than attempting to intuit the most probable solution. Essentially, his defense is that it is possible for there to be a non-scum motive for his behavior, not that such a possibility is likely to be true. This weak defense can be read as scummy, inclining towards a Rag lynch.

By contrast

~The Case to Lynch CL~
1) CL's play on d1 was illogical and aggressive, pushing for an impossible "recall and lynch The One for existing" scenario that had a) no foundation in a belief that The One was actually scum; b)No possibility of actually working as proposed since The One could end the day instead of accepting a recall/lynch; c) Would cause the day to end suddenly, arbitrarily, and in confusion, denying the town valuable debate. This play is extremely scummy.
2) CL, though thanks to circumstances beyond his control, has become a lurker. For the health of the game, lynching lurkers is generally a positive. (Further, scum can often lurk to avoid detection by logic. Though this doesn't apply in CL's case, his play was scummy before rather than having no record)
3) CL is tied into the Rag-QSJ-Zinger data cluster. A CL flip would provide valuable information on Rag, helping to either confirm or deny Zinger's theory. A Rag flip doesn't necessarily tell us as much about CL.



Here's the rub: I can both claim and verify my role ability, but I'd rather not do it unless we want to lynch Rag today. I'll clarify if anyone (especially anyone other than Rag or KoD who make actual posts already) cares enough to ask, but I want someone to ask because... frankly, this game needs something to freaking get the ball rolling again. So tell me what y'all think, do I let you all in on the wonderful world of Tevish's cruddy role, or do we just play the day out as-is?


~Tevish's Preferred Lynches/Vig Kills~
1) Rag
2) CL, as an alternate or if Rag somehow flips town.
3) Rubik the Lurker
4) Fred the Lurker

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:51 pm 
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You haven't exactly substantiated that its more likely for me to be scum defending scum than town defending scum either. Someone defending scum on D1 is probably slightly telling, but far from being the strong case you're making it out to be. Its extremely common for town to read scum as town, and to vocalize that. Do you think I was lying when i characterized the cases against QSJ as reading a difference in opinions as being motivated by faction rather than simply being motivated by a difference in perspective? Do you have any reason to believe that its more likely that i was scum defending scum than town defending scum?

the reason my defense is weak is because your case is weak. you've given very little reason to believe I'm scum and so I've had very little in the way of response.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:15 pm 
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Am here sorry, been mostly kept up but a bit busy otherwise.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:24 pm 
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I demand more from you.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:09 pm 
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Freddeh wrote:
Am here sorry, been mostly kept up but a bit busy otherwise.


what build are you playing

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:07 am 
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Final prod for CL before I ask Hello World if he still wants to replace.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:09 am 
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Deadline is the 14th at 10 PM EST.

Vote count later.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:46 am 
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While Tevish is absolutely right that Rag should be lynched before LyLo (and Neo probably should be too), or life is complicated by the fact that the setup of the game is hidden. We don't know when we reach LyLo. Also, right now I feel that Rag's case against Tevish is stronger than the reverse, so I'll just bite: Tevish, if you can in fact make a claim that seems trustworthy, is be willing to back a Rag lynch.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:27 pm 
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Vote: Aaarrrgh

my case against tevish is pretty weak imo so i'm surprised you'd say that

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:15 pm 
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OK, 12 hours between posts, looming deadline, and nonzero interest, here's the deal with my ability.

I can target players at night. This doesn't do anything on its own, but the following day I can challenge the player I targeted. If I do, it's Thunderdome: Only I and the player I challenged can be voted for and lynched.

This is a terrible ability and I pretty much don't want to ever use it where it matters. I targeted Rag last night (after all, I don't lend a whole lot of credence to his claim), so I can make today a duel between myself and Rag. Which I don't want to do unless it's going to be pointless because... I refer you to my comments yesterday on The One being an ability that should submit to a town leash, it would be wrong and extremely hubristic of me to just do it. But if Rag's gonna get lynched anyway, I can publicly verify that this is, in fact, my ability. (I've checked with PK, it would be acknowledged)

So what I want to hear from everybody is this: Should I use my ability or not?



Side note: In an average 12-player game we expect 3 scum, which would make the *current* layout 7-2. A mislynch and NK would bring us to 5-2, 4-2 if Neo shoots and hits town. So tomorrow might or might not be LyLo. If there were 4 starting scum, we're at 6-3 and can go to 3-3 (probable Game Over) in the worst scenario, 4-3 with any mislynch which would be LyLo, but I don't think that's super likely. An 8-4 starting layout would trigger LyLo after ANY mislynch without additional kills (which we know are in the game). If we only started with 2 scum for whatever reason we're currently 8-1 and super safe from LyLo scenarios, but that's also monstrously unlikely. IMO not as unlikely as 4 starting scum, since a hostile 3rd party could shift things, but unlikely. a 9-3 split in a 12-player game is amazingly standard for a reason. I think, therefore, we're not in any sort of LyLo now and would find it highly unlikely even if not impossible for us to be in a LyLo scenario tomorrow.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:12 pm 
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@Rag: I passed myself poorly, mainly because I was more concerned with style than clarity when I made that post. What I meant to say is that I also noticed (as you did) that Tevish had been putting out some bad cases and theories today. So based only on D2 behavior, there would be a stronger case against him than against you. Reading back through, I see that you indeed not commit to that case as much as I thought you had, so probably I was just projecting. Also, I'm getting bored and wanted something to happen.

About Tevish's claim: I suppose I'd be ok with the cage match. Confirming a claim is an ok use of a lynch, and confirming two at the same time would be great (unless we decide to lynch Tevish, that is). My only concern is that it would automatically give Tevish big Town pants when it actually says nothing about his alignment.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:05 am 
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I think you're town and you probably think you're town and there is a reasonable chance you'll get lynched using your ability so i wouldn't use it if i were you.

I believe you, argh.

confirming worthless claims is worthless. knowing that tevish isn't lying about thunderdome isn't really valuable to town, and i highly doubt he's lying anyways.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:12 am 
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Vote: CL

CL was second on amber's to-lynch list that she posted yesterday and i feel like its strange for the mafia to choose to kill her considering how low-impact she was so i'm guessing the mafia either killed her because they read her as a power role (probably for playing a low-impact style) or because they wanted to kill someone who was threatening to them, and CL makes the most sense considering he was runner-up on her lynch and her first choice hit scum. If QJ and CL are both scum, then scum would probably feel especially pressured to take some of the heat off lunch who was next in line for a lynch yesterday.

the case is a little lazy, but its the strongest I've got.

Its true that I didn't like tevish's reasoning at first, but after having talked with him a little i feel like i can understand where he was coming from (although his case is still weak). I think tevish probably wanted to push a lynch on someone to keep momentum in the game going and thats probably something that town tevish would want to do. I don't know tevish's meta that much, though.

With the deadline coming soon and the activity levels of this game, i imagine I'll keep my vote on CL up until lynch. I'd ask that other people start getting serious about who they want to lynch as well. Anything is better than nothing at this point.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 2:13 am 
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Vote: Captan Lunch

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:18 am 
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Right now, I think I'd rather see a Rag or a CL lynch. The cage match seems like fun, and, as of now, I'd vote for Rag over you, but clearly can only speak to myself. So, I'm fine if you choose to use it, and I'm fine if you do not.
If we were to lynch CL today, and he flipped town, would you (all) want me to target Rag tonight?
Clearly, if we do lynch CL, and he's scum, that's going to get Rag some town pants in my book, and be well off my radar.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:45 am 
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Yes, I think if we lynched CL and CL flipped town, Rag would be my natural call for a vig shot. I agree that a CL scum flip would mostly exonerate rag (That's what I was referring to in Case on CL, point 3 in my earlier post)

Honestly, while I think it's more likely that Rag is scum and CL town, I feel like there's a solid argument for lynch/killing CL first just for the health of the game, since he's gone AWOL to the point of expecting replacement. I hate that that has to be a consideration, but it really does at this point.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:48 am 
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EBWOP: In the event of Rag exonerated, my call for a vig shot would be one of the lurkers. I'd say Fred, who just popped in to give sign of life over Rubik who just seems inactive, since that's a wee bit more likely to be lurking scum than just inattentive.

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