So, it's that time again when I could play Sealed or wait for ranked draft. And yet again I've come to the conclusion that I'm better off waiting.
According to FK's
great breakdown that should not be the case at 50% win-rate, which I have roughly averaged over the last 3 releases.
So if we focus only on these events and the 50% win-case, he gets to these returns:
Sealed: +295 gems
Bo1 Draft (paid with gems!): +209 gems
Bo1 Draft (paid with gold): -41 gems
He has reached these values through these evaluations:
1 gem = 1 gem
1 regular booster = 200 gems
1 Draft/Sealed booster = 577 gold = 115.4 gemsNow while the first two are obvious, the last one carries a lot of assumptions and cannot be "correct" for everyone. He states as much and I assume that he has found the best possible value.
However I want to avoid determining this value which messes with the entire event evaluation process.
My metric is this: How many gems do I pay for 1 Draft/Sealed booster?I'll be using Frank's numbers here:
Sealed costs 2k gems and he has calculated an average return (still 50% win-rate) of 1,002 gems and 3 boosters, so 1,602 RoI + 6 Sealed boosters. That means I'm paying 398 / 6 = 66.33 gems per Sealed booster.
Bo1 Draft costs 750 gems and returns 347 gems and 1.33 boosters, that's a return of 613 gems + 3 Draft boosters. Therefore one Draft booster costs me 137 / 3 = 45.67 gems.
Bo1 gold Draft (that noob trap everyone always advises on reddit) costs (137+250) / 3 = 129 gems per Draft booster. Not the end of the world, but one could argue that the wildcard portion of a booster is worth more than 71 gems, which makes this event have a negative RoI.
So not only does one Draft booster cost me less than a Sealed booster, it is also more valuable for the purpose of acquiring rares: It's not too optimistic to expect 4 rares on average per draft, so you get 1.33 rares per Draft booster compared to only 1.00 in a Sealed booster.
When I factor that in, I'm only paying 45.67 / 1.33 = 34.34 gems for the equivalent of a Sealed booster in Bo1 Draft and
at that point Sealed is almost twice as expensive.So I cannot agree with the notion that Sealed has a better RoI. I could only see that when factoring in time as a resource - for a Sealed event should take about as much time as a Draft. Also, it's available
now, which is certainly a bonus.
Now that I've written this down, I'd like to get these thoughts to Frank. Maybe he sees a flaw that I don't see. Maybe you guys do
edit:
I have willingly ignored two factors that I assume are insignificant and will balance each other out:
1 Draft booster does not grant 1.33 times the Vault progress of a Sealed booster, so with this in mind it's value should be slightly less than 1.33 Sealed boosters.
However expecting only 4.00 rares (mythics count too!) per Draft is on the low end of expectations. Increasing this would raise the value of a Draft booster beyond 1.33.
And given that a Draft booster is already cheaper than a Sealed booster, this isn't that relevant, it only determines how much cheaper it is.