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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:04 am 
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By that I mean the rewards gained are enough to enter another draft.

I've not been able to reach the required win rates - I think I average around 5 wins per run - and sometimes have to wait several days to save up the necessary gold.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:24 am 
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You need to win 6 games in Quick Draft to get the gems needed for another draft with 100 extra, which I have started to manage to do quite a bit now.
Its literally built so greedily like you are 100 under at 5 wins but 100 above at 6 wins so its always a situation that makes you need more gems.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:56 am 
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I remember someone did the math on Reddit and the win rate needed in only gems model was 75%... that's above professional players win rate so...

At 65% - Pro players win rate- you can you can make your drafts worth something like 200gems and if you are putting your coins in drafts then you might be real close to going infinite.

" At a 64% winrate you would be making an average of 567 gems, which means you would be losing almost 200 gems per draft. At that rate though, assuming you bought gems at the best rate, you are only losing $1 per draft. And then it becomes a better proposition than buying packs, because you get all the cards you pulled plus 1 to 3 packs plus the experience of drafting"

---Reddit---

So if you add the daily quests coins + some gems to buffer your losses + 64% win rate you could technically go infinite.
65% win rate is not an easy task tho.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:27 am 
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I'm converting gold into gems (only spending gold and keeping the gems). Probably use them when the new set comes to draft.
My win-rate is probably 50-60%, not enough to go infinite, but gems are theoretically more valuable than gold.
I get 5000 gold every 3-4 days from quests and daily gold rewards.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:47 pm 
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I remember someone did the math on Reddit and the win rate needed in only gems model was 75%... that's above professional players win rate so...

At 65% - Pro players win rate- you can you can make your drafts worth something like 200gems and if you are putting your coins in drafts then you might be real close to going infinite.

" At a 64% winrate you would be making an average of 567 gems, which means you would be losing almost 200 gems per draft. At that rate though, assuming you bought gems at the best rate, you are only losing $1 per draft. And then it becomes a better proposition than buying packs, because you get all the cards you pulled plus 1 to 3 packs plus the experience of drafting"

---Reddit---

So if you add the daily quests coins + some gems to buffer your losses + 64% win rate you could technically go infinite.
65% win rate is not an easy task tho.

To be fair these pros have much fiercer opposition in their games.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:14 pm 
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I remember someone did the math on Reddit and the win rate needed in only gems model was 75%... that's above professional players win rate so...

At 65% - Pro players win rate- you can you can make your drafts worth something like 200gems and if you are putting your coins in drafts then you might be real close to going infinite.

" At a 64% winrate you would be making an average of 567 gems, which means you would be losing almost 200 gems per draft. At that rate though, assuming you bought gems at the best rate, you are only losing $1 per draft. And then it becomes a better proposition than buying packs, because you get all the cards you pulled plus 1 to 3 packs plus the experience of drafting"

---Reddit---

So if you add the daily quests coins + some gems to buffer your losses + 64% win rate you could technically go infinite.
65% win rate is not an easy task tho.

To be fair these pros have much fiercer opposition in their games.


That's what I thought too - it's not that uncommon for me to play against what I consider unplayable cards like Invoke the Divine. I have no idea what the pro win rate is in these drafts, however.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:51 pm 
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Just have pro skills on a rookie account. Matchmaking would catch on, but for a short while your win rate would be high enough to make back your investment. Then charge the next rookie $5 to do the same on his account :D

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:04 am 
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Banedon wrote:
I remember someone did the math on Reddit and the win rate needed in only gems model was 75%... that's above professional players win rate so...

At 65% - Pro players win rate- you can you can make your drafts worth something like 200gems and if you are putting your coins in drafts then you might be real close to going infinite.

" At a 64% winrate you would be making an average of 567 gems, which means you would be losing almost 200 gems per draft. At that rate though, assuming you bought gems at the best rate, you are only losing $1 per draft. And then it becomes a better proposition than buying packs, because you get all the cards you pulled plus 1 to 3 packs plus the experience of drafting"

---Reddit---

So if you add the daily quests coins + some gems to buffer your losses + 64% win rate you could technically go infinite.
65% win rate is not an easy task tho.

To be fair these pros have much fiercer opposition in their games.


That's what I thought too - it's not that uncommon for me to play against what I consider unplayable cards like Invoke the Divine. I have no idea what the pro win rate is in these drafts, however.


I also think the format leans towards higher win rates, because you can get 7 wins with good decks but no more than 3 losses with bad decks. That is some relief from opening 3 meh packs.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:20 am 
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Banedon wrote:
That's what I thought too - it's not that uncommon for me to play against what I consider unplayable cards like Invoke the Divine. I have no idea what the pro win rate is in these drafts, however.


DOM has enough artifacts and enchantments (Sagas, Equipment, Icy Manipulator, Arcane Flight/On Serra's Wings) and is slow enough that I actually like maindecking one Invoke the Divine or Broken Bond more often than not.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:41 pm 
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^ I was referring to M19.

I feel like I reach 7 wins more often than not in quick constructed (hurray for R/B netdecks), but I don't win as much as I'd like in draft, especially in Dominaria.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:37 am 
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Banedon wrote:
^ I was referring to M19.

I feel like I reach 7 wins more often than not in quick constructed (hurray for R/B netdecks), but I don't win as much as I'd like in draft, especially in Dominaria.

That sounds only natural for multiple reasons:

1) Your netdeck is the top dog, no one has a better deck, so it's down to piloting it to victory.
2) You're familiar with your QC deck.
3) Brewing a deck is an entirely different skill than piloting, which needs to be developed.

I'm too fresh to give drafting advice, but there's plenty to read in the internet.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:41 am 
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Ugh, can't reach 7 wins often enough in draft - I average 4-5 wins, which isn't nearly enough to go infinite. Sometimes I just play badly (e.g. the time I saved my Price of Fame till my opponent's turn even though my earlier Thought Erasure had seen a Chance for Glory in his hand), other times my deck just isn't very good. Anyone been able to go infinite in GRN draft?


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:14 am 
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Infinite nope, but once I get 10k I can chain 4-6 drafts before I run out of gas

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 8:04 am 
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Infinite nope, but once I get 10k I can chain 4-6 drafts before I run out of gas

Call me crazy, but since checking and analyzing numbers is kind of my job, I've calculated how many wins you need to reach those thresholds.

So for a run of 4 Drafts you need to gather 1,500 gems within the first 3 Drafts. To avoid corner cases we assume you do have a gem reserve (otherwise the order of the 3 records would also be relevant).

The worst overall record to gain that much would be 11 wins, so 11-9 composed of a 6-3 (850), 5-3 (650) and 0-3 (50). That's 1,550 gems total. Note that 7/4/0 (1,450) or 4/4/3 (1,200!) wouldn't be enough. So if you split your wins badly, you need up to 13 wins (7/3/3 or 5/4/4 for examples). Now while the middle ground appears to be 12 wins, there are too many reasonable (imo!) combos that don't make the cut (4/4/4 and 5/4/3 being the most prominent). I take from this that you need to get to 6 wins (most gems/win) routinely to achieve this 4-Draft streak from 10k - and plan for a 60% win-rate on average (13-9 is 59.1%). Remember this is not infinity but paying for 2 "bonus" Drafts after paying for 2.

to be continued (unless you discourage me ;) )


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 8:36 am 
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Haven't done the math but I do have some gems in the client- most times I end up with something between 50 -650 after the runs- and while you are running the drafts you earn a few more gold from quests so that adds up to the general goal to draft your ass down.
I think I can reach a 7 wins deck about every 4 drafts.
If you want to waste more of your time feel free to do it

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:00 am 
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I had 650 crystals and did a draft fpr 5k gold. I ended up at 6- and 7-2, then I had a mediocre draft at 4-3/5-3 can't remember. Then I had 2 terrible Dimir drafts which ended my run at around 150 crystals.

So you can go infinite, just draft boros or selesnya :P :D


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:39 am 
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Haven't done the math but I do have some gems in the client- most times I end up with something between 50 -650 after the runs- and while you are running the drafts you earn a few more gold from quests so that adds up to the general goal to draft your ass down.
I think I can reach a 7 wins deck about every 4 drafts.
If you want to waste more of your time feel free to do it

Don't worry, it's not that I could play instead.

But I suppose you're right. There isn't much to gain with this case analysis when the TL;DR is just that you need to win 6 on average for infinity. That's the assumption anyone would make intuitively anyway.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:10 am 
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Sol77_bla wrote:
Haven't done the math but I do have some gems in the client- most times I end up with something between 50 -650 after the runs- and while you are running the drafts you earn a few more gold from quests so that adds up to the general goal to draft your ass down.
I think I can reach a 7 wins deck about every 4 drafts.
If you want to waste more of your time feel free to do it

Don't worry, it's not that I could play instead.

But I suppose you're right. There isn't much to gain with this case analysis when the TL;DR is just that you need to win 6 on average for infinity. That's the assumption anyone would make intuitively anyway.


Ok so here is the current run
In your defense M19 is so easy once you remember to force boros aggro
Starting point
Image
Current unfinished draft
Image


Chained drafts
Image
I guess I will be playing at least a 5th run this time coz I had 650 gems to begin the run, but there you go it can be done.. and I´m far from being a good player in these forums standards.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:44 am 
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In my defense? Are you implying your results contradict something I said?


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:00 am 
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Hey buddy this thing is getting old, you suggested I wasn't being honest on my results and I personally make an effort IRL to say the truth for better or worse... so there it is man, I take it personal when you suggest I´m not being honest. The last draft ended 7-2 so I was left with 1850 gems, with that I can at least enter two more drafts chaining 6 drafts with my initial 10k + 650 gems, Not infinite by any means but not BS either.
Anyway, enough with this "drama".

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