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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:04 am 
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AD2016 wrote:
divinevert wrote:
AD2016 wrote:

Not in limited, I think 2 landers are almost an auto-keep in limited (as are 5 landers for that matter). In constructed it depends on your deck and what the hand does so can't really say, though I'm on the more aggressive side mulligan-wise with non-control decks.

Keeping a 2 lander in limited is usually bad, because curving out is so important.


Disagree, I think that to mulligan in limited you need a very strong reason. The effects of a mulligan on your chance to win are huge, while the odds of hitting your 3rd and 4th land on time with a 2 lander are good. And missing a land drop isn't usually the end of the world, missing 3 in a row is a disaster ofc. Now sure, the times you keep two lands and don't get there will stick in the memory, but I'm pretty sure the maths are on the side of a 2 land keep. Worth noting that if you keep 2 lands and don't draw lands for 6 turns, a 3 lander wouldn't have fared much better.



Depends on the format IMO. If the format is slow (KTK, DOM, M19), keeping a 2-lander is correct because you're much less likely to get run over. If the format is fast (ORI, KLD, AKH), keeping a 2-lander that doesn't do much can spell death for you.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:50 am 
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Disappointing end to Dominaria drafting for me. 3-3 in my final run. Two losses came to disconnect (...), the last one came against an opponent with Lyra Dawnbringer. I did allow myself to get blown out by Adamant Will - probably shouldn't have, since my Darigaaz with a Song of Freyalise counter > his Lyra - and near the end I misclicked a removal spell as well. But opponent had The Eldest Reborn together with main deck Tragic Poet, and he played well, so can't really complain. Still disappointing however, and no 7-win run in Dominaria for me. It'll be a few more days before I have the gold for another draft run, and it'll be a new format too. :(


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:36 am 
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AD, hitting your 4th land on time with a two lander has "good" odds? I would think that mulling to 6 with scry gives you better odds at hitting 4 on time, no?

where's DJ? He should be able to crunch this for me :)


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:36 am 
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AD, hitting your 4th land on time with a two lander has "good" odds? I would think that mulling to 6 with scry gives you better odds at hitting 4 on time, no?

where's DJ? He should be able to crunch this for me :)

Thing is, in arena only the 7 card hand has the starting hand algorithm. Once you mill, you start seeing the all land/no land hands more often.
I'll keep most 2 Landers if I have my colours and at least 1 or 2 castable spells.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:40 am 
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Haven_pt wrote:
AD, hitting your 4th land on time with a two lander has "good" odds? I would think that mulling to 6 with scry gives you better odds at hitting 4 on time, no?

where's DJ? He should be able to crunch this for me :)

Thing is, in arena only the 7 card hand has the starting hand algorithm. Once you mill, you start seeing the all land/no land hands more often.
I'll keep most 2 Landers if I have my colours and at least 1 or 2 castable spells.


Algorithm?

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:00 am 
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oh that's right, i completely forgot about the algorithm. I didn't want to trigger DJ :(

Vert, there's this thing to mitigate mana-screw put in where behind the scenes, the game draws TWO opening hands for you and picks the one with more appropriate mana for the land count in your deck, and then shows you one of them. So you have practically a zero chance of drawing zero or all land in your opener since you'd have to do it TWICE


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:33 am 
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Drafting like a noob..

So I've blown my gold on 2 DOM drafts and the performance was awful. My first deck wasn't good (I think), but I want to know, if this deck should've won more:

Spoiler


This felt like one of my best draft decks so far (record being 6 wins in M19), but I went 1-3. One of those losses was embarassing and never should've happened for I decked myself when I could've ended the game maybe 10 turns earlier. I just never checked my remaining library. But for the other 2 losses, I am at (yet another ;) ) loss. No easy excuses like mana or certain bombs against me. Are there any glaring issues or potential mismatches?
The last game was against a RG deck that killed me before I could do much.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:54 pm 
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oh that's right, i completely forgot about the algorithm. I didn't want to trigger DJ :(

Vert, there's this thing to mitigate mana-screw put in where behind the scenes, the game draws TWO opening hands for you and picks the one with more appropriate mana for the land count in your deck, and then shows you one of them. So you have practically a zero chance of drawing zero or all land in your opener since you'd have to do it TWICE


Is this a real, actual thing that's been confirmed or just some anecdotal nonsense like what I heard on the Duels forum?

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:24 pm 
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we didn't make it up


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:28 pm 
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divinevert wrote:
oh that's right, i completely forgot about the algorithm. I didn't want to trigger DJ :(

Vert, there's this thing to mitigate mana-screw put in where behind the scenes, the game draws TWO opening hands for you and picks the one with more appropriate mana for the land count in your deck, and then shows you one of them. So you have practically a zero chance of drawing zero or all land in your opener since you'd have to do it TWICE


Is this a real, actual thing that's been confirmed or just some anecdotal nonsense like what I heard on the Duels forum?


For better or worse, it's real and appears to be here to stay: https://mtgarena.community.gl/forums/threads/347


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:01 pm 
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AD, hitting your 4th land on time with a two lander has "good" odds? I would think that mulling to 6 with scry gives you better odds at hitting 4 on time, no?

where's DJ? He should be able to crunch this for me :)


AFAIK:

Assuming a 33 card deck after drawing, with 15 lands left in it (so 2 lands in hand):

draws......1.......2.......3......4
1 land.....45%..70%...83%...91%
2 lands............20%...43%..61%
3 lands......................9%...24%

A mull to 6 has a ~54% chance to have 2 lands or less, ~29% chance to have 3 lands and around 17% chance to have more than 3 lands. So it's a coinflip on the hand, though you're slightly more likely to have the same amount or less lands while also having one less spell.


Last edited by AD2016 on Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:04 pm 
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DCG-MTG wrote:
divinevert wrote:
oh that's right, i completely forgot about the algorithm. I didn't want to trigger DJ :(

Vert, there's this thing to mitigate mana-screw put in where behind the scenes, the game draws TWO opening hands for you and picks the one with more appropriate mana for the land count in your deck, and then shows you one of them. So you have practically a zero chance of drawing zero or all land in your opener since you'd have to do it TWICE


Is this a real, actual thing that's been confirmed or just some anecdotal nonsense like what I heard on the Duels forum?


For better or worse, it's real and appears to be here to stay: https://mtgarena.community.gl/forums/threads/347


Huh. Well, there you go. Wish I knew that, that may affect my deck construction philosophies.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:32 pm 
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divinevert wrote:
DCG-MTG wrote:
divinevert wrote:
Is this a real, actual thing that's been confirmed or just some anecdotal nonsense like what I heard on the Duels forum?

For better or worse, it's real and appears to be here to stay: https://mtgarena.community.gl/forums/threads/347

Huh. Well, there you go. Wish I knew that, that may affect my deck construction philosophies.

Keep in mind that it's only used for Bo1 games.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:54 pm 
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A long time ago in far away forum, there was some random dude who said this:
Image
So yes, if you are only playing BO1 or Quick Competitive you should build your mana base accordingly, and if you want optimal mana you should build a slightly different mana base for BO3

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:13 pm 
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AD, thanks for sharing the math! Did you put input the impact of the SCRY tho?

remember we want to investigate the probabilty of hitting the 4th land drop on schedule


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:35 pm 
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Bumping this to the front since DOM is the current QD format

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:38 pm 
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Currently 2-0 with Simic Ramp, topping off with Grunn, In Bolas's Clutches, and Sylvan Awakening.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:20 pm 
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How are we back at Dominaria again? What about HOU, Ixalan, Rivals, etc?

EDIT: I can't ever seem to draft Dominaria right, and somehow always seem to end up with 3-color monstrosities. The last one somehow managed to reach 5 wins, though.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:57 am 
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Banedon wrote:
How are we back at Dominaria again? What about HOU, Ixalan, Rivals, etc?

EDIT: I can't ever seem to draft Dominaria right, and somehow always seem to end up with 3-color monstrosities. The last one somehow managed to reach 5 wins, though.

It will be DOM for two weeks now followed by RIX-RIX-XLN.

I wanna try it later, too. If only to pick some rare dual lands.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:40 am 
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divinevert wrote:
Currently 2-0 with Simic Ramp, topping off with Grunn, In Bolas's Clutches, and Sylvan Awakening.


Funny, I went with simic ramp too (also with gruun, in bolas' clutches and Sylvan awakening, but also got a tatyova and thorn elemental.)
Went with 18 land. 1-0 so far, how did your run go?

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