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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:07 pm 
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mjack33 wrote:
The previous statement was full of **** bc Wyoming is a deep red state.

———————

I personally am against any state or country outright banning coal use. There are more scientific than environmental or political reasons for that stance though.


And there are political reasons, in Wyoming, to tax wind and solar. /shrug

(Also, which previous statement? Mine? Wyoming became deep red because only the reds support or protect its industries. Starve, move, or vote Republican.)


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:10 pm 
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The one where I pretended to believe in an unfettered free market to (I guess subtly?) poke fun at the party of small government and capitalism.

I was calling myself full of ****. As opposed to full of ****, which is slightly more negative.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:14 pm 
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mjack33 wrote:
The one where I pretended to believe in an unfettered free market to (I guess subtly?) poke fun at the party of small government and capitalism.


Ah gotcha.

Well, if the market isn’t actually free, then protectionism is sometimes required. In fact, it’s a core tenet of the economic theory in support of free markets - particularly dealing with trade. When your export market imposes tariffs, etc... the expected result is reactions in the exporting nation/state/etc.

It’s actually not incongruous with small government, capitalism, etc. Quite the contrary, in fact, because the economic theories which support the concept of capitalism, require reactions to actions in other markets (mostly to discourage/punish those actions).


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:23 pm 
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The market should theoretically be free between states; bc many more states than Wyoming use that particular power grid. I’m actually somewhat interested in how they plan to enforce the law in some areas if it passes lol.

Fossil fuels in Wyoming are having a problem bc fossil fuels in general are having problems. Protectionism in this form is probably a delay tactic that won’t address the underlying challenges.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:24 pm 
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Fun fact: The state of Texas is the only state with its own energy grid.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:31 pm 
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mjack33 wrote:
Fossil fuels in Wyoming are having a problem bc fossil fuels are under attack from government policies elsewhere.


FTFY

FYI: Wyoming has the 4th cheapest electricity in the U.S. mostly because it’s coal-fired. (And of course this is very beneficial to people living in the state).

I think they’ll enforce it by checking what the source was - note: it would only be in effect for in-state consumption.

Re: Texas, it’s also one of the greenest grids in the U.S. with huge amounts of wind power generated (ironically) in west Texas (right near where huge amounts of oil are currently being produced, lol). Our system is actually really interesting, because the way it’s set up, it’s much more vulnerable to wind and solar than you’d expect (from a mostly red state). Basically, the way it works, wind and solar get to 1) cause a need for peak-load capacity, and 2) benefit from causing the need, by getting to earn the rate the peak capacity providers charge. It’s really interesting as a case study.


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:45 pm 
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There is some of that happening; but it’s only half the reason. solar and wind have actually gotten cheap enough to compete now and will continue to grow cheaper as the technology develops.

Coal also IS bad for the environment; so it’s definitely having the problem you described though.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:37 pm 
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I read a twitter thread the other day that caused me some thought about Buttigeig (since he’s looking like one of the two most likely to win nomination). Thread wasn’t about him (was response to an American saying all the young people he talks to in Saudi Arabia lead him to believe the country will be changing rapidly; just used him as a reference point in describing someone else). I’m just pulling the tweets that caused me these thoughts/questions. Guy I’m quoting is Chilean.

”Most voted candidate among middle class limeños in the elections was a young gay liberal, a peruvian Pete Buttigieg.

The same urban middle class, who make up 70% of peruvian twitter but no more than 10% of the population, were aghast that other peruvians voted differently.

Urban middle class people, no matter from which country, really need to step out of their bubble and start realizing that their maids and chaffeurs have friends families living in areas were they've never set their foot. They will go the polls too. And they will vote differently.”



It reminded me of prop 8 in CA some years back. At the time I thought there was no way it’d pass in progressive CA. I was shocked when it did. Felt unbelievable. I attended a demonstration against its passing afterwards, and it was largely made up of urban middle class people. A dark secret Dems don’t talk about is that many African Americans and Latinos are socially conservative. They vote overwhelmingly Democratic cause the party is perceived as supporting their economic interests, and partly because however true or false, Dems have been successful in painting Republican Party as racist. But on social issues, you’ll find a good deal of overlap with the religious right. Thinking back to prop 8, Latinos are the largest ethnic group in CA and legit could explain why it passed.

Originally I was thinking Pete would have similar results as Hillary. Maybe better electoral college results being from the Midwest; but his biggest problem would be being perceived as a corporate puppet by the socialist wing of Democratic Party. Now I’m starting to think he might have a bigger problem, with respect to the minority vote... I’m very curious to see how it plays out if he wins nomination.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:45 pm 
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it won't matter cuz minorities won't vote Trump. He's been the most transparent candidate as being anti-immigrant.

I actually tried watching some of the State of the Union. Did anyone else actually try to watch it? I thought it would be fun, but omg it was really dark and FULL of propaganda. He kept citing examples of where immigrants within the U.S. were killing or raping individuals and was saying how ICE wanted to get them out, but 'radical liberal agenda' prevented it and because of the liberal agenda, these people 'were brutally murdered and raped" He said examples like this several times. in a STATE OF THE UNION address. It was really horrifying to see this level of propaganda being delivered by a sitting head of state to congress. Things have really fallen far.


anyway, you think Pete is top two?? I'm guessing you don't see Bloomberg as having a really strong shot?


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:53 pm 
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People have already decided which party they will *not* vote for. There aren’t going to be a lot of swing voters in this election with potential to vote for either major party. The best you can hope for is that the other party’s potential supporters either stay home or vote third party.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:57 pm 
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It’s not about Trump getting them, it’s about them not voting for Pete. I’m not thinking they will change vote over that, but that they could sit this one out.

Ya I see Sanders and Pete most likely. Maybe Amy; once Biden drops out she could take his supporters. Think Bernie gets a portion of Warren’s supporters when she drops out, and Amy gets the portion who prioritizes having 1st female president. I don’t think Bloomberg has a realistic shot. He has too much baggage - specially now that his crime policies as mayor are being used against him. That, his late entry, and wealth keep him from being a serious contender imo

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:58 pm 
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The Democratic frontrunner(s) won’t be fully clear until after Super Tuesday. I would bet on it mostly being Sanders vs someone else though.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:04 pm 
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I see the future. Bernie gets a clear plurality of delegates by a decent margin but not the majority required to clinch it. The nomination is “stolen “ again at a contested convention. This becomes a full repeat of 2016 where the enthusiasm is just gone and Trump squeaks out another one. Democrats once again grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

Only half joking.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:07 pm 
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mjack33 wrote:
The Democratic frontrunner(s) won’t be fully clear until after Super Tuesday. I would bet on it mostly being Sanders vs someone else though.


Yes, but first two give a decent indication of who front runners will be and Sanders/Pete standing out

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:26 pm 
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mjack33 wrote:
I see the future. Bernie gets a clear plurality of delegates by a decent margin but not the majority required to clinch it. The nomination is “stolen “ again at a contested convention. This becomes a full repeat of 2016 where the enthusiasm is just gone and Trump squeaks out another one. Democrats once again grab defeat from the jaws of victory.

Only half joking.


I could do a whole other post on concerns of Sanders winning nomination...

To boil them down, his socialist message only really flies with about 20-25% of the electorate. He’s well positioned in the Dem primaries because that portion of electorate is concentrated there. Once it goes to gen pop, looking at about 75-80% who don’t jive with it. I think fear of that is why DNC sabotaged him last time. Their strategists remembering the 1972 elections, where they drifted too far left with their candidate, losing the election in a landslide and seeing their party fractured afterwards

Opposition to Trump might save literally any Dem candidate, but I don’t see sure shots

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:38 pm 
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Birds of Prey was decent, I was disappointed by how they did Cassandra Cain.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:39 pm 
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mjack33 wrote:
There is some of that happening; but it’s only half the reason. solar and wind have actually gotten cheap enough to compete now and will continue to grow cheaper as the technology develops.

Coal also IS bad for the environment; so it’s definitely having the problem you described though.


Solar and Wind enter the electricity market as free... they are not, however, cheap. Marginal cost of production is 0 with both. The problem is that they restrict the ability to install base load capacity - which actually is cheap - and encourage the use of peak load generation instead - like natural gas generators, which are relatively expensive.

Put another way, wind and solar cause us to use natural gas generators which are expensive. So if you really want to evaluate how expensive Wind and Solar actually are, you have to look at how much natural gas they make you consume, and how much THAT electricity costs to produce (think of it as the hidden, off the books, cost of Wind and Solar energy). The more wind and solar you use, the more natural gas you are likely to need - and the more expensive that natural gas electricity will become.

Anyway, Coal is certainly bad for the environment, especially when it doesn't get its NOX and SOX emissions scrubbed out before they reach the atmosphere - which is VERY infrequent in modern times. It's also worse for CO2 emissions relative to other fuel sources (because it has more carbon molecules than simpler fuels, like natural gas), if that's your primary concern.


Last edited by DJ0045 on Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:39 pm 
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Who was Cassandra?
I’m sorry to say Birds of Prey didn’t even meet my wet blanket expectations. First half is good but it just gets really dumb after that. Mary Elisabeth, who was my main motivation to see it, was especially terrible and flat. Dammit.

You really gotta be into girl power to dig it


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:54 pm 
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Who was Cassandra?
I’m sorry to say Birds of Prey didn’t even meet my wet blanket expectations. First half is good but it just gets really dumb after that. Mary Elisabeth, who was my main motivation to see it, was especially terrible and flat. Dammit.

You really gotta be into girl power to dig it


I tried to warn you. The movie looks terrible. Like, I probably won't even watch it for free on HBO when I can; not even in the background while I'm doing something else, lol.


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:20 pm 
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deadpoet wrote:
Birds of Prey was decent, I was disappointed by how they did Cassandra Cain.


I heard the choreography for the fight scenes sucked.

Plus its not Gotham. That is clearly Los Angeles.

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