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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:41 pm 
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First reaction: I’m glad you are doing okay.

Second reaction: You really should not be going to the gym for any reason. Please tell me y’all have canceled/suspended your memberships lol.

————
Spoiler


Edit 4: Look y’all. No quintuple post.

You can file this one under “DJ’s Horsemen.”

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:53 pm 
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Thanks, we aren't in the clear completely yet, but I think we are fine.

My wife is/was OCD levels of careful... e.g.: wearing gloves and a mask, aware of cross contamination and how to avoid it, constant cleanliness. I can not guarantee that anyone else in the room got away without catching it, but I'm not surprised she made it through safe. That said, we have definitely suspended our accounts, and will keep them suspended for the foreseeable future.


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:04 pm 
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I am sorely tempted to bring up the stock market and ask some questions; but I don’t want to ruin the moment too much.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:18 pm 
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mjack33 wrote:
I am sorely tempted to bring up the stock market and ask some questions; but I don’t want to ruin the moment too much.


Nah it’s cool. We can talk about the market. Wondering why it hasn’t crashed again? Probably, because investors expect the government to bail out corporations again as needed. Much less uncertainty now.


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:44 am 
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Well I have two questions for the most part. Sort of open ended ish.

Context: The Trump administration has essentially stolen half a trillion dollars by blatantly and illegally refusing to comply with mandatory Congressional oversight. And in general their handling of most emergency bailout/stimulus this year has been extremely corrupt. Democrats are extremely pissed at this, and it has all the hallmarks of potentially becoming a very nasty election year fight where both sides try to blame any negative fallout on the other side.

So

1. Why is the stock market so confident that bailouts will occur in a timely manner?

2. What in the world is going to happen if said confidence in the governing abilities of Donald Trump, Mitch McConnell, and Nancy Pelosi is proven to be misplaced?

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:17 am 
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90 days is plenty of time for the markets, hardly timely, even for Washington.

I’d be surprised if those three can posture for long enough to make the above timeline fail. But if it did, unmitigated disaster.


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:26 am 
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Before my current war
Spoiler


Currently

Spoiler


I've taken out England and India, i'm almost done with Gilgamesh. I plan to seek peace with Pedro II,so I can build up my thermonuclear weapons again. I started with 38,now i'm at 14.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:39 am 
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:rofl:

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:51 am 
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deadpoet wrote:
Before my current war
Spoiler


Currently

Spoiler


I've taken out England and India, i'm almost done with Gilgamesh. I plan to seek peace with Pedro II,so I can build up my thermonuclear weapons again. I started with 38,now i'm at 14.

Why did Orange settle north of you :confused::confused::confused:


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:25 am 
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DaRkStAr wrote:
[quote="
Why did Orange settle north of you :confused::confused::confused:


That's Gilgamesh and it's over 250 turns in

this was the map way back when I uncovered it

Image
upload images

Russia (yellow/red) above me,japan below me (red/white)

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:55 am 
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DJ0045 wrote:
90 days is plenty of time for the markets, hardly timely, even for Washington.

I’d be surprised if those three can posture for long enough to make the above timeline fail. But if it did, unmitigated disaster.


Lol 90 days. Do you really believe the market is that sane/patient in an ongoing crisis? I would honestly expect the markets to crater faster than in February if a serious standoff began with no clear end game.

Please, tell me I’m wrong. I sincerely want to believe the opposite.

As for what those three can accomplish; just look at the longer government shutdown. Not even an iota of compromise during the entire thing that lasted 34 days. The only reason it ended is because Trump caved completely and stole his funding instead; and that only happened when the airlines faced a complete collapse due to air traffic controllers walking off the job. If Pelosi and Trump get into that kind of standoff again, in an election year, I can easily see it continuing until January 21st.

I believe the most common fallacy in judging the US govt is that people assume they are rational adult actors capable of making a deal undef the sword of damocles when most prior evidence disagrees.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:20 am 
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mjack33 wrote:
DJ0045 wrote:
90 days is plenty of time for the markets, hardly timely, even for Washington.

I’d be surprised if those three can posture for long enough to make the above timeline fail. But if it did, unmitigated disaster.


Lol 90 days. Do you really believe the market is that sane/patient in an ongoing crisis? I would honestly expect the markets to crater faster than in February if a serious standoff began with no clear end game.

Please, tell me I’m wrong. I sincerely want to believe the opposite.

As for what those three can accomplish; just look at the longer government shutdown. Not even an iota of compromise during the entire thing that lasted 34 days. The only reason it ended is because Trump caved completely and stole his funding instead; and that only happened when the airlines faced a complete collapse due to air traffic controllers walking off the job. If Pelosi and Trump get into that kind of standoff again, in an election year, I can easily see it continuing until January 21st.

I believe the most common fallacy in judging the US govt is that people assume they are rational adult actors capable of making a deal undef the sword of damocles when most prior evidence disagrees.


The market isn’t a thing that is sane/patient or not sane/patient. If a standoff occurred it would have an effect - probably not as dramatic as you think, but it would still be bad. Absent your predicted standoff, investors likely believe that a further bailout is in the cards, if needed (it’s not needed yet).

Don’t lol too much @ 90 days. That’s a quarter, I.e. the reporting timeframe for public companies. If a problem emerges and is resolved within a quarter the 10-Qs will not be disastrous. It’s not a number I simply made up, but a rough estimate based on market realities.

Anyway, the rest is approaching political discussion, I’m happy to have it, but are you sure you want to?


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:12 am 
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I apologize I misunderstood the context of 90 days.

Yeah no thank you lol. Old habits are dying kicking and screaming but you should expect me to shrink away from posting if the discussion gets too political. I’ve obviously been finding it very hard to completely separate the two though.

——————

Another economics question:

Ignoring the likelihood of such a thing, how will the market react if :

- Unemployment stays at 10-12% through the end of the year?
- Unemployment starts going even higher?

Also what would be the first really bad number for unemployment to hit?

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:20 am 
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Edit: This was about the Trump Pelosi standoff

I think that is more about the toxic nature of bipartisan systems than the particular actors... Is there something like a prospect of a third force with a liberal dimension that could take voters from Republicans and Democrats?

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:34 am 
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Hey DJ, glad things are okay so far, hopefully they stay that way.

At my work, we have about 25 people, with about 20 in the office now (I am still working from home, probably because I am higher risk). Well, two of the young traders had dinner with three of their friends about 10 days ago...and all three of their friends tested positive. Both traders are now in quarantine, with one tested negative (Other is waiting for his test results). I live in Bend, OR, which is a pretty small town (Just under 100k) and we have only had 192 cases. I am guessing that the friends were from Portland, OR visiting since we are a recreation based town. (We get sun when it is cloudy in Portland...and it is cloudy in Portland a lot)

Anyway, we will see how the tests come out but there is a real possibility that my office is infected now. Thankfully I am still at home being a hermit. Luckily, most of the people that are in the office are 45 or younger, with the majority in early 30's, so hopefully nothing too bad even if it does spread. If nothing else, it seems like it was a wake up call that it can hit anywhere.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:36 am 
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my ex-wife texted me yesterday that I'm just a sperm donor who should be in jail.

FUN.


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:47 am 
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Edit: This was about the Trump Pelosi standoff

I think that is more about the toxic nature of bipartisan systems than the particular actors... Is there something like a prospect of a third force with a liberal dimension that could take voters from Republicans and Democrats?


That’s generally just not how first past the post voting systems work. They are essentially designed to force coalitions that can reliably reach 50% + 1; so there is only room for two big coalitions that have a vested interest in keeping 3rd parties out of the picture entirely. This is a global phenomenon and I am not at all intending to specifically refer to any one nation and/or state. I have zero desire to discuss the specifics of the US system but multiple others will probably be happy to.

———————-

@Barney,

Well that sucks. Good luck.

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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:59 am 
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mjack33 wrote:
I apologize I misunderstood the context of 90 days.

Yeah no thank you lol. Old habits are dying kicking and screaming but you should expect me to shrink away from posting if the discussion gets too political. I’ve obviously been finding it very hard to completely separate the two though.

——————

Another economics question:

Ignoring the likelihood of such a thing, how will the market react if :

- Unemployment stays at 10-12% through the end of the year?
- Unemployment starts going even higher?

Also what would be the first really bad number for unemployment to hit?


Poorly to both, but keep in mind we are already 10% off this year’s high point for the Dow - e.g. the market has already reacted poorly to those events.

10% already meets the standard of your last question. This is already worse than 2008 for example. No idea what the next break point would be. Maybe 20% (sustained)? Not sure. We are already above the highest it’s ever been in all (I believe) of our lives. The mitigating factor, and I believe I’ve said this before, is that this unemployment is due to an outside force, rather than internal economic force. Once the outside force is gone, markets would expect a full recovery and they are pricing themselves to reflect that point of view.


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:04 am 
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can't believe I haven't said this yet but it's good to have you back DJ

You missed a great Austin, Texas joke I made in your absence


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 Post subject: Re: Off Topic Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:06 am 
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can't believe I haven't said this yet but it's good to have you back DJ

You missed a great Austin, Texas joke I made in your absence


What was it?


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