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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:04 pm 
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I didn't receive any disk ever. I started yesterday with a disk and passed it along to minish.

In any case its a fact that at the end of yesterday both you and zinger ended the day with a disk and that there are max 2 townies with disks. Even if you don't believe me, rubik, argh, and the confirmed townie (who could out themselves if they want) that minish sent her disk to the confirmed townie that still makes it very likely that one of you and zinger are non-town.

The disk holders at end of day were:

1: zinger
2: skystone
3: the person rubik got a green check on
4: ???
5: ???

one of the top three must be scum and its very difficult to make a reasonable argument that its not skystone

its more reasonable to make an argument that those three weren't actually disk holders at the end of the day, but zinger and skystone have both confirmed they were, and me and rubik should both be able to confirm that minish sent the town player a disk, and if it somehow came to it that sky wasn't going to be lynched today, then they could out themselves and confirm as much as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:10 pm 
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just to be safe i confirmed with the third person that they did have a disk at end of game and they confirmed it. Rubik and Argh can confirm this.

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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:10 pm 
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@Skystone:

I'm perfectly capable of reading English words.

I just don't think you understand what I'm putting down.

Let me put it down again.


No. Disks. Were. Lost.

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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:30 pm 
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Identity: Rubik
Q: @Rubik do you mind confirming in thread that the player you got a green check on had a disk at end of day?

A: they did to my knowledge, yes


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:31 pm 
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@Skystone, never mind KoD. The death of Jay obviously hit him hard. He's broken, stuck on repeat. No fire left, alas!


@Rubik:Sorry I forget if you ever mentioned it, but how did you get a 'green' check mark?


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:36 pm 
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I'd rather not vote skystone because they've asked to be scanned. I don't trust that Zinger is town, so I don't think sky is proven guilty.
I'd rather not vote Aargh because I think they're a suicide bomb. Rag's chat and Aargh themselves have both proven willing to lynch Aargh, and only turned to other targets once Aargh wasn't getting enough votes.
Meanwhile, Freddeh passed their disk to zinger, who I still don't think is town. Zinger didn't confirm until they communicated back with Freddeh, which I suspect had them hashing out some sort of a deal. A deal which town!zinger wouldn't feel the need to take.

I don't care if you think me town or third party, you better believe me when I say for the time being Freddeh is under my protection and a vote against him is asking for me to come at you, hard.

If I die, then you can have your open season on Freddeh. Until then, look for other suspects.

And before you say "Zing is buddying up to Fred they must be scum together", check yourself before you wreck yourself because my buddying up to him so publicly like this is a bad play for a duo scum Zinger/Freddeh team.

I don't *know* Freddeh's alignment, but I am confident enough of it to say that I don't even feel the need to waste a night actiton investigating him. I believe he is town, and I am willing to die on that hill.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:37 pm 
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I can confirm I tracked Aaarrrgh night 1 (who targetted Rag) and I told Skystone. I also told Rag, so it's probably known more broadely anyway.
N2 KoD targetted Minish.
N3 Amber did not target anyone.

Skystone's story is definitely interesting. And great if true. Agreed with PK that we would need to know if passing it again is possible though.

The missing first night kill would fit well with Rag being scum. We know Aaarrrgh jailed her. Her being scum is more likely than him protecting the scum hit. However, could also have been someone forgot to send in a target.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:42 pm 
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I'll admit, I am suspicious of Rag, but Rag's intel comes from Rubik, who I am not suspicious of. And I am far *more* suspicious of Aaarrrgh than Rag, and I don't think there's a reality where both Aaarrrgh and Rag are scum together.

I was happy to solve that riddle of Aaarrrgh or Rag by lynching Aaarrrgh until you (Skystone) came along and admited you had a disc, which, if Rubik is to be believed (and I see no reason to not believe him), you can't be Town. So Aaarrrgh and Rag will have to wait to be resolved another day.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:42 pm 
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Ragnarokio wrote:
one of the top three must be scum and its very difficult to make a reasonable argument that its not skystone

That is, and fairly obviously so, only true if we take your words as gospel. But essentially all of the public information in the game so far as been conveyed to us by you, the leader of the Cult of Rag.

If we stop for a moment to consider that we have no compelling reason to believe that you are town, then everything else falls apart. The entire supposed game state is predicated on the assumption that you and only you are telling the truth. Minish, your innocent co-conspirator, is mysteriously dead; the confirmed 'town' player is a secret (if potentially rightfully so); and the player who 'confirmed' that townie is Shadow, a third player actor who by the very rules of the game is as likely to end up mafia as not.

This is not a convincing framework of facts.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:46 pm 
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Rag's testimony is corroborated by Rubik. Unless you're calling *both* of them liars, then Rag's testimony holds water.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:02 pm 
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Quote:
I was happy to solve that riddle of Aaarrrgh or Rag by lynching Aaarrrgh until you (Skystone) came along and admited you had a disc, which, if Rubik is to be believed (and I see no reason to not believe him), you can't be Town. So Aaarrrgh and Rag will have to wait to be resolved another day.

I didn't admit to having a disc end of day. I admitted to receiving a disc, then passing it on.

The latter shouldn't count for the mission result.

Zinger2099 wrote:
Rag's testimony is corroborated by Rubik. Unless you're calling *both* of them liars, then Rag's testimony holds water.

Which piece of testimony, specifically? There are several claims coming from the Rag side.

In any case, Rubik is ultimately Shadow, and a self-admitted survivor. Without passing specific judgment on Rubik's actual motives with respect to me (because I don't know the data point that you're working off of, and I won't presume to call someone a liar without a statement to refer to), suspicious actor + a 3rd party who can win mafia does not a compelling testimony make.

I'm willing to bet that Shadow either can't or can't easily be killed prior to the end game scenario, as that would undermine the fundamental draw of this game. Ergo, Rubik likely has no particular accountability for his actions at this early stage, and is honestly probably motivated -- from the perspective of optimal play -- to keep the factions relatively balanced.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:05 pm 
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For the record then, tell us when exactly you received a disc, and when exactly you passed it on, and to whom.

There's no room for you to be vague or coy, right now. Your head is on the chopping block. It's time to tell all.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:07 pm 
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Duskyblue wrote:
The missing first night kill would fit well with Rag being scum. We know Aaarrrgh jailed her. Her being scum is more likely than him protecting the scum hit. However, could also have been someone forgot to send in a target.

I'd like to highlight this.

Rag leading the vote on Aaarrgh is pretty suspect when Rag had third party testimony that Aaarrrgh was acting honestly.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:18 pm 
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Skystone wrote:
Duskyblue wrote:
The missing first night kill would fit well with Rag being scum. We know Aaarrrgh jailed her. Her being scum is more likely than him protecting the scum hit. However, could also have been someone forgot to send in a target.

I'd like to highlight this.

Rag leading the vote on Aaarrgh is pretty suspect when Rag had third party testimony that Aaarrrgh was acting honestly.

We know. That doesn't change the hot water you are in.

You keep trying to discredit others as your means of salvation. Instead of telling me why I shouldn't trust them, tell me why I should trust you. I see no reason, personally.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:22 pm 
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Zinger2099 wrote:
For the record then, tell us when exactly you received a disc, and when exactly you passed it on, and to whom.

There's no room for you to be vague or coy, right now. Your head is on the chopping block. It's time to tell all.

Is there a way to see hour/minute timestamps on Discord as opposed to just days? Because I (obviously) don't mentally clock the minutes of quotidian minutiae. In any case:

I received word of my receipt of a disc at some point during the afternoon of the 14th. I believe it was closer to noon than not. 12pm-2:30pm, perhaps?

I re-sent my disc fairly close to the deadline. Like, within an hour or two. I remember being concerned about missing the deadline because Deku changed the hour-of at some point in order to make it easier for him to post before bed, and I wasn't certain anymore what time that was here.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:26 pm 
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Skystone wrote:
Zinger2099 wrote:
For the record then, tell us when exactly you received a disc, and when exactly you passed it on, and to whom.

There's no room for you to be vague or coy, right now. Your head is on the chopping block. It's time to tell all.

Is there a way to see hour/minute timestamps on Discord as opposed to just days? Because I (obviously) don't mentally clock the minutes of quotidian minutiae. In any case:

I received word of my receipt of a disc at some point during the afternoon of the 14th. I believe it was closer to noon than not. 12pm-2:30pm, perhaps?

I re-sent my disc fairly close to the deadline. Like, within an hour or two. I remember being concerned about missing the deadline because Deku changed the hour-of at some point in order to make it easier for him to post before bed, and I wasn't certain anymore what time that was here.

If you highlight the message date in discord, you can see the exact time the message is sent.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:28 pm 
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Zinger2099 wrote:
We know. That doesn't change the hot water you are in.

You keep trying to discredit others as your means of salvation. Instead of telling me why I shouldn't trust them, tell me why I should trust you. I see no reason, personally.

This is generally how mafia is played. The lynch on any given day tends to be the individual for whom the most incriminating evidence is provided, as this is the natural benchmark for assessing guilt vs. innocence.

Also, humans are inherently somewhat more responsive to incriminating rather than exculpatory evidence, so the optimal approach for essentially any player is to examine the burden of sin on any given suspect.

Also, I tried to honeypot Rag, so I'm pretty invested in seeing my gambit work out.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:30 pm 
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Skystone wrote:
Ragnarokio wrote:
one of the top three must be scum and its very difficult to make a reasonable argument that its not skystone

That is, and fairly obviously so, only true if we take your words as gospel. But essentially all of the public information in the game so far as been conveyed to us by you, the leader of the Cult of Rag.

If we stop for a moment to consider that we have no compelling reason to believe that you are town, then everything else falls apart. The entire supposed game state is predicated on the assumption that you and only you are telling the truth. Minish, your innocent co-conspirator, is mysteriously dead; the confirmed 'town' player is a secret (if potentially rightfully so); and the player who 'confirmed' that townie is Shadow, a third player actor who by the very rules of the game is as likely to end up mafia as not.

This is not a convincing framework of facts.


zinger ending yesterday with a disk came from zinger (and was corroborated by freddeh)
you ending yesterday with a disk came from you (and was corroborated by PK)
at least 3 non-town having disks came from the mod

the only piece of information which came from me is that the green player ended yesterday with a disk, and that can be corroborated by rubik and argh and by the player themselves if necessary. From an objective perspective, its very reliable information. Minish said in chat that she was going to send the disk to the player in question and rubik and argh can confirm that. The only way the player in question didn't have the disk is probably if they lost it or sent it away prior to the night ending and lied about it for some reason.

Its also possible that rubik's green check was either a lie or that the player in question is a reverse-miller, but even if you only accept that they probably had a disk, its still true that one of you, zinger, and them are non-town, and the case on you is by far the strongest.

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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:44 pm 
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Skystone wrote:
Zinger2099 wrote:
For the record then, tell us when exactly you received a disc, and when exactly you passed it on, and to whom.

There's no room for you to be vague or coy, right now. Your head is on the chopping block. It's time to tell all.

Is there a way to see hour/minute timestamps on Discord as opposed to just days? Because I (obviously) don't mentally clock the minutes of quotidian minutiae. In any case:

I received word of my receipt of a disc at some point during the afternoon of the 14th. I believe it was closer to noon than not. 12pm-2:30pm, perhaps?

I re-sent my disc fairly close to the deadline. Like, within an hour or two. I remember being concerned about missing the deadline because Deku changed the hour-of at some point in order to make it easier for him to post before bed, and I wasn't certain anymore what time that was here.

I meant when exactly in game terms. End of Day 2? Middle of Night 2? Start of Day 1? etc, etc.


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 Post subject: Re: Shadow the Hedgehog
PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:34 pm 
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Zinger2099 wrote:
I meant when exactly in game terms. End of Day 2? Middle of Night 2? Start of Day 1? etc, etc.

Middle-ish of Night for receipt. End of/late Night for re-gifting.

Same Night for both, obviously, because the mission was only active for one cycle.

Ragnarokio wrote:
you ending yesterday with a disk came from you (and was corroborated by PK)

Come now. You can't very well use me as evidence for your own claim when I very evidently and rather vociferously aver the opposite.

That's really reaching.


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