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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:17 pm 
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Tevish can never be Naive. So he's either Sane (I'm Krampus), or he's Krampus.

Yes, you are right. That is another consequence of CL being Santa.


You are making sense, it's just my approach to thinking on it is more messy than a clean "Consider this person as Krampus" approach. Eventually I'll reach that point given enough time (thinking in the messy way as opposed to a more neat way).

Course, that's why I said what you posted exhausted all the options.

Wow. I actually got through to KoD after I disagreed with him on something. :V That like, never happens. Christmas has come early! :party:

Of course, while I bring up that under the assumptions of scenario 1 Tevish could possibly be Krampus, I'm not sure how likely that is, given Tevish was the first to claim, and why would Krampus volunteer to claim first before seeing at least some of the claims of other people? Unless of course, Krampus Tevish thought this exact thing and then decided to go first anyway to try and gain Santa pants while banking on his ability to wifom out of any trouble it got him in, which I suppose is also possible. Oy... Looking at all these wine glasses, I wish I had built up immunity to iocaine powder right now...


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:26 pm 
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Well the evidence points to me being clear. So you guys should trust me more and lynch KoD. See, Kod investigated himself so when he flips we will know his sanity and probably solving the game.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:28 pm 
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Well the evidence points to me being clear. So you guys should trust me more and lynch KoD. See, Kod investigated himself so when he flips we will know his sanity and probably solving the game.

How does the evidence clear you, exactly?

Two naughty results on you. If you are Krampus, then Argh and I are Sane and Paranoid, which means KoD is Naive and Tevish is Insane. This scenario makes complete sense given the information available, so you're still a suspect bucko.

And until I know for sure that I'm Paranoid or Insane, you're a suspect I plan to suspect slightly more.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:37 pm 
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I thought everybody said I was probably Santa. Krampus messes with the results so we can't compare todays and tomarrows results in any reliable way. So good luck trying to figure out your sanity without a lynch.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 1:52 pm 
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As I mentioned earlier, Tevish and I are the most likely Krampuses from a purely statistical point of view. However, we also made our claims at the points that I think would be riskiest for Krampus, as Tevish claimed first and I was the third in a row to claim a naughty result. But that's of course all wifom, and unlikely to matter.

And CL, we shoot once, and we do it D3. That's by far the safest strategy in Dethy.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:07 pm 
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Ok fine don't listen.

@numbers
I agree with a no lynch.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:27 pm 
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I also agree with a no lynch and/or ending the day early unless anything major happens.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:55 pm 
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Yeah, we've gotten everything out of today we're going to get. I'm fine with moving on as well.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:02 pm 
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No Lynch seems like the logical choice. This is Dethy after all.

In addition to the previous year Krampus powers (Make someone show "Naughty" to ALL investigations & Reverse all Results for 1 night), last year I was Krampus and had the ability "Permanently exchange the sanity of two players".

Until we have a second round of results, though, it's hard (perhaps impossible) to derive anything. So far it's not as though the results are logically inconsistent

Zinger covered the general "If N is Krampus what results do we expect?" list earlier, so I'm just going to put in a workplace for "my perspective" -- knowing I'm Santa, what does that mean

Spoiler


I move to advance to the next day/phase

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:19 pm 
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Alright then, we are moving on from this phase. Nobody is lynched. You have 48 hours to send in night 2 actions.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 6:53 am 
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All actions are in so let's get back to it!
There are still no deaths and you have 72 hours for discussion/voting.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:59 am 
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I investigated myself and received Naughty. If my results aren't being tampered, that clears KoD from my perspective.

Also, I have a suspicion about the Krampus ability this year now: Last year when I was Krampus one of my Dethy mails came in via the cult chain from another active game, and jokes were made about "Cult of Krampus". With no death, it may have actually been done...

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:15 am 
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Unless there have been shenanigans, I currently know who is krampus. I'm just not sure if I should claim it know, or wait for them to commit to their own claim first?

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:30 am 
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Hello Arrgh. I'm currently sleeping.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:33 am 
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Oh before I forget, the Krampus ability has varied each time to keep things spicy. It's not as simple as one might think since the ability is, typically, a surprise nowadays.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:10 am 
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I investigated myself and received Naughty. If my results aren't being tampered, that clears KoD from my perspective.

Also, I have a suspicion about the Krampus ability this year now: Last year when I was Krampus one of my Dethy mails came in via the cult chain from another active game, and jokes were made about "Cult of Krampus". With no death, it may have actually been done...

If this is true and JD made a Cult of Krampus ability and then didn't make me Krampus, I'm going to be sad.

Last night I decided to take one for the team and at the risk of not gaining new information I chose to repeat my Night 1 action. I was afraid of the potential for a global reversal of results and thought that if one of us repeated their action and got the same or a different result, it would add or take credibility away from the trustworthiness of everyone else's results. That was my thought, anyway.

I got Naughty on CL again.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:15 am 
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Aaarrrgh wrote:
Unless there have been shenanigans, I currently know who is krampus. I'm just not sure if I should claim it know, or wait for them to commit to their own claim first?

Given you investigated CL Night 1 and got Naughty, the only way for you to, in theory, be sure that anyone is Krampus would be by investigating yourself and getting Nice (thus, confirming to you that you are the Sane Santa and CL is Krampus). Given anyone can deduce this from logical reasoning, I don't know why you'd bother being coy about it to give Krampus a chance to speak up. If anything, being coy about it when the results of your actions are evident is a sign that maybe you are trying to trick the rest of us and not, as you say, catch Krampus in a trap.

Sidenote, I typed Krampis by mistake and now I am laughing. Krampiss. lol

Assuming I've not misread the situation, then Aaarrrgh is the Sane cop and that means I, unfortunately, must be Paranoid...

But I guess CL is Krampus? So yay?


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:18 am 
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Zinger2099 wrote:
CL is Krampus
I am Sane or Paranoid
Argh is Sane or Paranoid
Tevish is Insane
KoD is Naive


Given new information, we now, in theory, know:

CL is Krampus
I am Paranoid
Argh is Sane
Tevish is Insane
KoD is Naive

Tevish already confirmed he got a Naughty on KoD and himself so Insane makes sense.

We just need KoD to confirm that he got a Nice result and if so everything adds up to confirm Aaarrrgh's assertion that CL is Krampus.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:49 am 
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I got another nice on zinger


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:53 am 
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I'm not krampus zinger, so you better check your math

Also tevish is cult mongering. Lol


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