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 Post subject: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 1:38 pm 
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If there are 5 players fighting a boss in an RPG, and every player has a 20% chance of getting an item from the boss, what are the odds that none of the players get an item?


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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:16 pm 
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(1-0.2)^5

or, 32.768%

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Last edited by Cato on Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:59 pm 
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it's that high?? Good job, Cato

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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 4:16 am 
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if there are 5 players fighting a boss in an RPG, and that boss drops one item to be distributed to one of the players at random, what is each player's chance of receiving an item?


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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:04 am 
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Apple wrote:
if there are 5 players fighting a boss in an RPG, and that boss drops one item to be distributed to one of the players at random, what is each player's chance of receiving an item?

20%.

:duel:

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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:12 am 
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I've already given her both of these answers before she made her post. rag wants to imply that there's an inconsistency in that there's a chance that none of the party members receive loot, despite each of them having the same probability to receive loot in both examples, the latter in which receiving an item is guaranteed. Or that the first question is too ambiguous.

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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:35 am 
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the fact that the answer to the second question is 20% suggests that simply knowing that each player has a 20% chance of receiving loot isn't enough to determine the chance of no players receiving loot

although i suspect the reason for that is a language trick


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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:27 am 
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It's because there was an additional factor that you didn't tell us about. It's like how asking "if I roll a six sided die, what's the chance that I get a 6?" will get you a different answer than if you ask "if I roll five d6s and take the highest one, what's the chance that its' a 6?" This isn't some epiphany about epistemological uncertainty, this is you omitting important information.

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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:04 am 
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its less that, and more that all of the conditions given in the first answer seem to be defined by the answer of the second question.

in the first case and in the second case, there are five players and they each have a 20% chance of receiving an item, so given that those are the only two things you know, how can you know that 0-5 items are dropping as opposed to just 1?


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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:10 pm 
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"Well, when you roll a d6, how can you know that there's not a spooky ghost that always turns it so that the number 6 faces up?"

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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:37 pm 
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Lol

Btw assuming the ghost is sp00ky is a little racist

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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:43 am 
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Yep, my d20 is possessed by a ghost. That's why I only get natural 20s. :shifty:

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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 1:22 am 
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When asking a question, only factors that are given in the question have to be taken into account. The first question only asks one thing, so the answer is as stated. The second question asks a different thing, so it's answer is also as stated. You don't get to suddenly do a bait and switch and tell people their answer is wrong because you didn't provide enough information, and in any real RPG this information would be given if we knew loot drops rates so the point is mostly pointless philosophizing to begin with.


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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:31 am 
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Agreed with mjack

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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:52 am 
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The assumption is that the original post is describing a system for giving out loot, not describing the result of a system.

The normal way to interpret the original post is "each player independently has a 20% chance of receiving loot". If the probabilities are independent, then what other players get doesn't affect what you get, and Cato's calculation is correct.

If the original post meant something else, it should have been worded as "loot is allocated according to some system which has a result of each player having a 20% chance to get loot". In which case the answer could be pretty much anything between 0% and 32.768% depending on what the system is.

(For example, the boss could generate loot for players A and B with a 40% chance, and if this loot is generated then it is given to one of those players at random. It also generates loot for players C, D and E with a 60% chance, and if generated, gives to one of those players at random. Under this system, there is a 24% chance that no one gets any loot).


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 Post subject: Re: probablity quiz
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:39 am 
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Cato wrote:
"Well, when you roll a d6, how can you know that there's not a spooky ghost that always turns it so that the number 6 faces up?"

I mean, a simpler analogy would be asking "if I roll a six-sided die, what are the odds it comes up 6?" and then, after people answer, coming back with one of these bad boys:

Image

:duel:

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