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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:12 pm 
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Based on the info we have thus far:

- CL or Fred can be Insane or Paranoid.
- I am either Naive or Nice.
- Neo is potentially Insane or Paranoid.

That's about as far as I got. The lack of Zinger's results and Neo's first result on me have left holes in figuring out who is what definitively.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:41 pm 
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I feel like there's just not enough info to be able to really reason this out, the normal way.

Leaning towards Fred right now, based on <reason>

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 4:27 pm 
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Well given Zinger never talked, yes, we are working with less than what we could use. We still need Fred's result from last night though.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 4:50 pm 
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Except...the inversion clause.
Based on the note from the mod, the ability was used N0, but, inversion was missed. So, we know that the results from N0 are accurate, and, the results from N1 are either correct, or incorrect. Clearly, I would expect the inversion to be used, but, with that logic, I could see not using it, and having people assume it was used.

So - based only on N0.
KoD - Sane/Naive/Insane/Scum (cannot be paranoid)
Me - any
Fred - Insane/Paranoid/Scum (cannot be sane or naive)
CL - Sane/Insane/Paranoid/Scum (cannot be naive)

N1 really does not give us anything, since we don't know if the results are correct or inverted.

There's clearly not enough info to logically figure this all out. We need Fred to start posting.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:42 am 
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Sorry, still here, been busy and forgot for a bit >_>.

Got Naughty then Nice on Zinger. So one of them definitely got swapped.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:56 am 
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And since we know Zinger is nice, I'm either paranoid/insane and the inversion happened last night, or naive/sane and the inversion happened n0.

Wait, can multiple people be affected by the same ability, or is one of the helles abilities applied to each player?

I feel like the latter is too broken, but if we go by that plan it would appear that Zinger was silenced, CL was Poisoned, Neo was roleblocked, that leaves either me or KoD with a randomized target and the other as mr krampus.

BUT, it is also possible Zinger got poisoned AND silenced, while Neo was roleblocked and 'someone' was target swapped.

OR, neo is lying, Zinger got silenced and roleblocked, and the permutations continue.

Basically, we don't know anything and its pretty much a complete guess, since we can't even trust our own results with the krampus ability potentially targeting someone else.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:02 am 
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We had confirmation that the inversion did not happen on N0.
We had some type of confirmation that KoD was not allowed to post on D1.
So, based on that assumption that KoD was silenced, then it has to be me or Fred that is scum.

I know it's not me...so...

Vote: Fred

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:26 pm 
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Ok so we have confirmation that inversion was used if I'm reading what you said correctly Fred. N0 you got Naughty on Zinger, then on N1 Nice on Zinger. So inversion was used. That makes my Naughty result on you (Fred) a Nice, and for Neo he got a Nice on me as well.

There's no way Krampus could know who is what Santa from N0 since only a few people gave their results, right? Without considering the randomized target (and speaking of which Neo is right about the silence confirmation, and I would wager he was roleblocked since he said he lost his list) only two people gave their results from N0 on D1 (Fred and CL) so not even Krampus would be able to figure out who. If you throw in the randomized target (assuming the abilities stack), then any of us could have had a random target. If the abilities don't stack, then the randomized target would have been either Fred or one of CL or Zinger.

Honestly the only thing I got is that Fred and I (knowing the inversion happened) are similar with the Nice / Naughty results (which turned out to be Nice / Nice). We know Zinger is Nice so Fred has to be sane or Naive whereas I could be Naive or possibly Insane.

CL got Naughty on me on N0, and he is a Santa, so we know he is either Insane or Paranoid. With the inversion, we know Neo got a Naughty result (Nice was given) on me. So Neo is either Paranoid or Insane.

So correct me if I'm wrong on how this looks:
Fred: Sane/Naive
KoD: Naive/Insane
CL: Insane/Paranoid
Neo: Paranoid/Insane

Zinger is obviously one of the options, but I haven't included him for obvious reasons.

Without having double checked anything, I would say Fred can't be Krampus. This is due to the appearance of Insane as a possibility for three people which would indicate that one of the three has to be lying.

The only glaring mistake I can think of is the randomized target. If it hit any of us, then it makes for serious errors in the logic. Beyond that, is there anything I might have missed?


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:48 pm 
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Since I didn't get instahammered by KoD, that makes this even easier

Vote: Neo


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 2:58 pm 
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:V ?

Can you at least look over what I put out in case there is anything I missed? Because while this may be easy for the two of you, it's not like this is the second grade.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 3:31 pm 
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The only "proof" we have that inversion was used is from Fred, and he's scum.

For the random target - I'm assuming everyone gets the same message, stating that "your target" rather than the name of who you targeted. So, assuming that's everyone, anyone's results from N0 could be on the wrong person - well...not anyone, as mine was blocked, KoD was silenced, CL or Zinger was poisoned. Then, either CL or Zinger got the redirect, and Fred is the scum.

Had everyone (looking at you, Zinger...) posted their results, it would be even easier. But, as it is, it's still clearly Fred, IMO, based on what we know. Had I been lying about being blocked on N0, I would have assumed that someone else would have counter-claimed, but that didn't happen. Fred didn't claim anything.

Up to you, KoD, but, it seems pretty obv to me.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 4:01 pm 
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Ok, thanks Neo. I'm sitting here taking at face value what everyone is saying so I can try to work out something about which sanity everyone has.

Let me try looking at if inversion wasn't used to see what outcome there is.

Spoiler


Fred: Error (if inversion not used, Fred has two different results on same person)
KoD: Sane
CL: Sane/Insane/Paranoid
Neo: Sane/Insane/Paranoid

This is drastically different from the previous conclusion if inversion was used. The most noticeable difference is that Fred, if Krampus, would have put himself into a logic trap by giving a different result on Zinger while not using inversion.

However if you are Krampus, Neo, then the scenario makes more sense given what I posted previously for the outcomes. I'm going to go with the logic and say it's got to be you.

Vote: Neo


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:00 pm 
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*Sigh* KoD - haven't you seen that your reads on me are wrong.
Congrats Krampus (90% sure it's Fred, with a 10% chance of KoD)

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:40 pm 
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I've put forth what I was able to garner from the game state. Read-wise I can't really say one way or another because it isn't like much talking is going on to develop normal reads.

What about my view is incorrect? And I say view rather than read because I didn't develop any read on you. Something like 5 or so posts that you have for me to use to make a read. I suppose I could say you're quick to jump at someone (Fred) as being the potential scum without putting forth effort to analyze the game (near the start of the day). Fred on the other hand was reacting to how things developed (him being voted and not being hammered).

Can you see why it isn't easy to see which choice is the right one based on that stuff?


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:51 pm 
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What about my view is incorrect?


Really only the fact that I'm town. I understand the reasoning, but I just feel the lack of claims and content from Fred should have been more of a red flag.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:58 pm 
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Hi everybody! So that's a 2-1 majority Neo over Fred. Day ends. Game ends. With Neo dead Krampus is free to kill his final victim over night.

Congrats KoD you have redeemed yourself this year.

The jury is out on the Helles balance. This game was hampered by the inversion mistake as well as Zinger being MIA and not being able to provide information. I'm inclined to remove the poison effect at least though.

So as is alluded to above, KoD was Krampus and Helles'd NO and inverted N1.

Helles operated as a different effect for each aspect and had the chance to target the same player multiple times with nobody being excluded as a possible target. KoD silenced himself, blocked Neo, redirected Fred to CL, and poisoned CL.

Fred was your insane cop, so the redirect ultimately had no effect on his returned result.
Neo was your naive cop, but with a block followed by inversion that was impossible to surmise.
Zings was your paranoid cop and was MIA from after he submitted a night target until after his death was announced in thread.
CL was your Sane cop, lucky poisoning.

That's all I got for now.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 12:31 am 
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Not much to bother commenting over and I was kind of in a rush to go to work. Just got back and it looks like you were just slowrolling anyway :V


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 12:44 am 
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I sided with you Fred.

Friends?

:V


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:08 am 
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I guess that's what I get for assuming.
@Numbers - was there a chance that KoD could have poisoned himself?

Also - why not drop the hammer when I voted Fred? Just wondering :)

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:57 am 
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Of course. Helles NO presents a problem of costing himself the game if he gets poisoned. Helles any other night just puts him on a clock to finish the game the next day/night really.

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