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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:13 pm 
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Vote: Altimis

Who the **** is SneakyFox anyway?

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:56 pm 
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Anyone else notice that Alt is still alive?


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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:02 pm 
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We know Alt is still alive.

It went past the 48 hour time limit he gave us in the event he was the one killed as he initially believed.

Ok, with JaC's claim we got something that looks like this now.

- JD as HW with early day vote manipulating power and deadline shortening power.

- JaC as PK with a vig ability with a drawback.

- Niklor as Murica with no abilities.

- KoD as KoD with no restrictions to his posting.

Break.

Myki as Ragnarokio who is a Super Miller.

Neo as Haunter who was the jester and is now abominable.

Alt as SneakyFox who can talk to dead and revive one player.

Zipper as JD who can BG someone.

End.

Considering the dead players, Fred being the only one we don't really know about other than title, I expect that Niklor may be the only one lying about his role as I find a pure vanilla townie in the setup to be off given what we have seen so far from claims and flips (again, excluding Fred).

That is to say, the lack of a gimmick for Niklor's role has me doubting his claim.

Vote: Niklor


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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:05 pm 
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Sorry for the confusion. I have had a super busy week and am just now trying to catch up. Do we know when this day ends? I can't find the timer and I want to reread and hopefully come up with some thoughts


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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:18 pm 
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I don't think PaK's thrown a timer up yet but rough estimate on day (from his initial roughly 7 day quote) would put us at about 51 hours left in day give or take.

I'm flippant on Niklor's claim. And subsequent actions. I'd lynch Nikle Pikle all day e'ry day though.

I seriously don't know wtf SneakyFox is and that bugs the hell out of me despite SF being on the name list. Hence my current vote.

I'd still lynch JaC too. Because when he lives this long I just start thinking he should die.

Assuming Rag is as flipped, Zip and Myki are cleared for me. Given MyKi's super miller claim I'd likely say both can't be miller. So if Rag is miller than Zip and Myki are scum on the flip there.

So basically yeah. I got nothing.

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:50 pm 
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@JD: Did you not pay attention to me? I am SneakyFox anyway. Empress of Buns. Wielder of Poutine.

@Myki: I noticed that Alt was still alive. Did anyone notice that I said I wouldn't know when other than that I would simply die two IRL days later. I've been assuming Zipper was lying this whole time, so when nobody died, I assumed that I was the night kill and would be dying two IRL days later.

If we assume Rag is a death miller, Myki and Zipper is my scum team pick.

Here's my final thoughts given it seems some people want to vote me.
If there's one scum left: I think it's Niklor.
If there are two scum left: I think it's Zipper and Myki.

What I would prefer doing is lynching Zipper. If we lynch Zipper and he is town, myki is town. However, we lose our protective role.

I want to lynch lynch Myki. if myki is scum, then we can lynch zipper.
If myki is town, I want to lynch niklor.

At this point in the game, if there are two mafia left, we have one incorrect guess left before lylo. If we have one mafia left, we have two incorrect guesses. I'd rather play as if there are two mafia left, as this is the safest play for a town win.

[color=#1170963]Vote: Myki[/color]

Love me or hate me, but don't lynch me. It's a waste of a late game powerful role.

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:51 pm 
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I hate my fat fingers...

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squinty_eyes: Alt, you have fantastic logic. And zero political prowess.
CKY: Through a convoluted series of events involving three tons of garden gnomes and a pickup truck, Henderson’s Magikarp defeats the Deoxys terrorizing the city.

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:10 pm 
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@Alt: Why are we assuming two mafiates alive as opposed to one?

The issue here with your approach is that Myki, in the event Zipper is scum, is more likely to be town than not.

By lynching Myki first, it doesn't 100% clear Zipper by having Myki flip town (again, because scum Zipper can claim to have protected Myki).

So why the change?


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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:48 pm 
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0% Chance PK uses a Death Miller.


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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:29 pm 
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If we assume rag was a miller.

Myki called miller, Zipper called protective role. Nobody counterclaimed them. I didn't like many of their plays early on. If rag was the miller, then Myki has

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squinty_eyes: Alt, you have fantastic logic. And zero political prowess.
CKY: Through a convoluted series of events involving three tons of garden gnomes and a pickup truck, Henderson’s Magikarp defeats the Deoxys terrorizing the city.

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:31 pm 
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NeoSilk wrote:
@KoD - I saw your claim, was hoping for a bit more.
@Zipper - do you want to claim who you protected last night?
Alt's odd claim, to me, seems townish, plus, I do believe that he (since no one counter claimed) did bring me back. Clearly, I was town aligned before, and, while I know I am still, I understand that no one else (aside from the person who brought me back) would assume that. So, for me, with the info we have now, I have Alt as "most likely" to be town on my list.
For his list, it's tough. Based on the QT that had Rag, it seems clear that Rag was using others to perform the night kill, so, maybe there is a chance that mafia is unable to kill someone anymore, although I find that unlikely. More likely to me is that scum saved someone, or, that scum is trying to claim that they saved someone, and passed on the NK to gain more town pants.
Which, still makes me think that this is Zipper still working on looking like town, although, as discussed before, that is still a bit crazy.

I guess, all in all, that I find myself agreeing with Alt around his thoughts from last night. Clearly, he's still alive, at the least, and based on the timing for when I was day killed, and when I was brought back to life, it clearly came from someone else, as there were a few hours difference between when I died and when I came back.
:facepalm:
Presuming you trust neo ofc

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squinty_eyes: Alt, you have fantastic logic. And zero political prowess.
CKY: Through a convoluted series of events involving three tons of garden gnomes and a pickup truck, Henderson’s Magikarp defeats the Deoxys terrorizing the city.

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:33 pm 
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:bang:

mehmeh meh... then I am suspicious of niklor.
UNVOTE

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squinty_eyes: Alt, you have fantastic logic. And zero political prowess.
CKY: Through a convoluted series of events involving three tons of garden gnomes and a pickup truck, Henderson’s Magikarp defeats the Deoxys terrorizing the city.

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:11 pm 
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Trusting Neo inherently means trusting you.

As for assuming Rag was a miller, then yes, that would give cause to suspect Myki for having claimed a miller role openly.

However, aside from Myki claiming miller (which she, by her own words, breadcrumbed throughout the game) what reason do we have to suspect Rag was miller?

I mean, outside of the whole chain lynching scum for the odd play.


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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:42 am 
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I still have no reason to think we have two mafia.

Alt said we have two mislynches before we hit LyLo assuming one mafiate (otherwise one mislynch if two but eh).

Unvote

I'm actually ok with using this time to resolve Zipper.

The issue of him surviving to LyLo and potentially being scum is real and should be taken care of now while we have room for error.

At best we end the game with a scum lynch.

At worse, we lose a town Zipper, but at least clears Myki*.

*Note: One scenario proposed was that town Zipper could have protected mafia and a nk was done on that night.

While possible, the chances of it being the case are nowhere near as likely as the chances of town Zipper protecting town Myki.

Zipper


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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:42 am 
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EBWOP:

Vote: Zipper


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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:44 am 
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You could technically trust me without believing that Alt is town, although I would put that as VERY unlikely. But there is chance.
Right now, my order is:
Zipper
Niklor
KoD
JD
JaC
Myki
Alt
Me

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:23 am 
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Zipper being high with MyKi being low doesn't make much sense. Zipper only makes sense as scum if Rag was death miller. Zipper and Rag being team makes no sense. This is why Zipper and MyKi are tied together for the most part.

But all things considered Zipper isn't a likely lynch candidate for me because of Rag, whether death miller or not. Because Rag lied about the counter, the impression is there that Rag lied to save Rubik, who flipped scum, by fake counter claiming Zipper. This wouldn't happen as scum. So either we are looking at a Zipper-MyKi-Rubik team or a Rubik-Rag-??? team which likely doesn't include Zipper (but maybe MyKi). Voting Zipper in this scenario I think is premature.

"But JD!" I hear you cry "Zipper claimed doc and isn't dead yet!". That's all very simple. His PGO claim has kept him alive. If we assume all flips were straight, mafia cannot hit Zipper because of his PGO claim. With one scum left the gamble is too high on taking the chance that they won't die with him. If Zipper is town, he'll never be hit in the night. Scum will try to rally a lynch on him. This is another reason I think voting Zipper is premature at this juncture. This also puts my focus on the Zipper wagon.

For now I'd rather eliminate the players I'm having a hard time reading before a LyLo situation. For me that's Altimis-Niklor-JaC, with Alt being top of the list for also being on the Zipper wagon if only honorarily. And by that I mean he's spent the day essentially going "Zipper is totally town guys but...." and then proceeds to continually talk about scenarios where his most likely to be town is scum. Classic wagon start without throwing your own vote behind it. Then there was the whole thing were he made a suspect list that was absent of MyKi and Neo, saying he valued their lead above all others, which he followed up with by saying if there's one scum is Niklor and if there's two then it's Zipper and MyKi and that he really wanted to lynch Zipper. Then he voted MyKi.

Super flippant, desperate to stay alive. Honestly I'm not really having trouble reading Alt I'm just reading self all over the place. Possible chance of last desperate mafiaite. Best vote at the moment, IMO.

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:26 am 
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JayDreven wrote:
Because Rag lied about the counter, the impression is there that Rag lied to save Rubik, who flipped scum, by fake counter claiming Zipper. This wouldn't happen as scum. So either we are looking at a Zipper-MyKi-Rubik team or a Rubik-Rag-??? team which likely doesn't include Zipper (but maybe MyKi). Voting Zipper in this scenario I think is premature.


This wouldn't happen as Zipper being scum.*

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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:34 pm 
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The paranoia surrounding Zipper isn't rooted in Ragnarokio potentially being a death miller.

It is based on the idea that a scum team is Rag/Rubik/Zipper went about playing so far on the edge that when the situation got resolved D1 they stood to gain some form of town pants that wouldnt be questioned.

Add to this the stuff JaC pointed out concerning Zipper's actions.

Specifically, why, as town in that situation, openly claim the PGO part of the role thereby making it, as you said, highly unlikely for scum to risk targeting him.

Myki is already resolved at this point simply because of Zipper claiming (not assuming two scum because no reason to assume so).

As either town or scum, Zipper claiming to have protected Myki assures Myki is town (for the scenario of Myki being scum please refer to my previous post with the note -- or rather, it is not likely at all).

As an aside, the PGO claim by Zipper also makes targeting him by town impossible least they execute themself.

Effectively, he can, as either alignment, ride the claim to LyLo.

Also, wrt to Alt being scum, I don't see this as likely given the role he bears.

He proved he could revive someone (Neo), and this begs the question of why would scum revive known town?

Unless it netted some kind of benefit, there'd be no point, and the only benefit would be in some kind of alignment shenanigans which would mean Neo would have to be questioned (and you're not questioning Neo).

This all leads back to the need to resolve Zipper now because this is not the discussion we want to be having in LyLo.

Compared to Zipper, Alt being scum would bring Neo into question.

Zipper being scum only brings himself into question.


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 Post subject: Re: Px2 Mafia - Day Four
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:05 pm 
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I keep going over your post, and I noticed your view is rooted in the idea scum wouldn't counterclaim scum (referring to Rag/Zip).

The notion seems similar to the idea I usually go with concerning scum playing safe.

The way the situation looks with what Rag did, assuming the flip is genuine, comes off as completely out of line with any sort of safe play.

Look back at the D1 vote count.

Rag supported Rubik via voting with Rubik on Zipper along with myself and Neo.

The counterclaim by Rag presented a risky play to shift the Lynch from Rubik to Zipper.

And that failed coupled with Rag admitting to lying and subsequently getting lynched.

In a situation that close I don't see why scum would play so risky the way Rag did as it would make much more sense to bus your scum mate.

This makes the idea of a scum Zipper plausible despite the counterclaim from Rag.


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